Identifying Uncertainty in Water Allocation Modelling

Water allocation models, sometimes referred to as water availability models, are critical tools for effective water resources management. Effective water allocation models allow policy-makers and managers to gain insight into the potential consequences of system changes, be they regulatory changes, infrastructure changes, climatic or other physical changes. Water allocation models are also used to set the expectations of water-entitlement holders regarding their ‘security of supply’. These expectations play a significant role in determining the level of investment associated with irrigation and water use. Uncertainty around the security of supply has been shown to have significant negative impacts in reducing investment and undermining incentives for development. Therefore, it is vital that model output is robust.